65,000 fighters killed in Ukraine, growing elderly populace: Russia stares at population crisis

Experts warned that Russia might witness a 10 per cent decline in births this calendar year as thousands of Russian soldiers continue to die in the war being waged in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he termed a “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24 last year. Since then, nearly 65,000 Russian fighters have died in Ukraine and over 1.3 lakh have sustained grievous injuries.

As per reports, experts have estimated that Russia may see fewer than 1.2 million births this year if the war rages on in the near future.

Approximately, 8 lakh people, mainly men of fighting age, have fled Russia since the war began in a bid to avoid active participation in the military offensive, according to a media report.

A projection by the United Nations showed that Russia’s population surpassed its peak at the time of the dissolution of the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), but at present, Moscow’s countdown to its population crisis has begun as Putin’s war continues in Ukraine.

With a ceasefire looking elusive in the foreseeable future, Russia’s situation may worsen as it has been recording a growing elderly population. By the way, Russia’s situation is akin to that of China’s. To redress the issue, the Chinese government has allowed month-long marital leaves for employees in the country, so that its population goes on an upward trajectory.

As per reports, Moscow will head for a demographic crisis, not only because of lives lost amid the war with Ukraine, but issues related to psychological trauma as a contributory factor.

Russian demographer Alexey Raksha said that the war-zone casualty figures will embed a deep wound in an already wobbly economy. He said that fatalities on the battlefield would stem beyond the frontlines and have an impact on Russians in more than one way.

“If there are no soldiers, it means there are no men. No men, no sex. No sex, no children. It is very simple,” Express.co.uk quoted Raksha as saying.

“But we also do not know what the psychological impact is going to be on these people, which will also cause the number of births to decline,” he said.

RUSSIANS LEFT THE COUNTRY
Russia recorded two significant exodus since the Ukraine war broke out in February last year. The first one was recorded when President Putin announced the “military operation” and the second exodus was recorded when the Russian leader ordered partial mobilisation of nearly 3 lakh military forces on September 21.

That was followed by 8 lakh individuals, mostly fighting-age men, disappearing from Russia. On the other hand, many argue that the disappearance would have no impact as the arrival a million Ukrainian refugees compensated for the exodus.

But Raksha told Express.co.uk that those entering Russia were not of the right age to stall the population crisis. “On the face of it, things are not that bad, because compared with the 800,000 or so people who have left the country fleeing from the war, Russia has also taken in around one million Ukrainians,” he was quoted as saying.

“But the age, sex and educational structure of those who emigrated and those who immigrated are completely different. So, mostly young, educated, high-earning men left the country (Russia) and mostly women with children and elderly people came to the country as refugees from the war,” Raksha said.

“If you combine all the factors — the hit to incomes that fleeing of young men and mobilisation will cause and the psychological shock — together Russia will probably see a 10 per cent decline in births in 2023,” the expert said.

Raksha added these factors would impact the Russian economy in 20 years when these individuals come of age.