60% of China could be infected by Covid in next 3 months, says epidemiologist

Skyrocketing infections, inundated hospitals, overflowing morgues — elation from the lifting of zero Covid curbs proved tragically short-lived as China reels under a Covid explosion.

Amid this grim state of affairs, a top infectious disease expert has projected that more than 60 per cent of China’s population is likely to be infected by the coronavirus in the next three months and witness millions of Covid-related deaths.

“Thermonuclear bad — Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of China and 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start,” said epidemiologist and health economist Eric Feigl-Ding in a Twitter thread.

⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵pic.twitter.com/VAEvF0ALg9 — Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 19, 2022

Chinese authorities have failed to bolster the elderly vaccination rate, upping surge and intensive care capacity in hospitals, and stockpiling antiviral medications, which could spell disaster for the country’s 1.4 billion citizens, warned experts.

“Doubling time in China may not be days anymore. Doubling time now possibly ‘hours’ says some experts — let that sink in. R is hard to calculate if doubling is less than 1 day because it’s hard to PCR test that fast. The point is China & the world is in deep trouble,” said Feigl-Ding.

Already, hospitals are overwhelmed and the government is scrambling to install intensive care beds and build fever screening clinics. State-run crematoriums are operating round the clock, but are still unable to cope with the dead bodies that are piling up.

Since the lifting of curbs, Beijing reported two Covid-related deaths on Monday, followed by five on Tuesday — the first fatalities reported in weeks. However, citing media reports, Feigl-Ding claimed that the deaths in mainland China are being hugely underreported.

According to Feigl-Ding, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) has decided to let the virus run free. “CCP’s current goal: “let whoever needs to be infected, infected, let whoever needs to die, die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production,” he summed up.

Since the outbreak of Covid in early 2020, the Chinese government has used strict lockdowns, centralised quarantines, mass testing and rigorous contact tracing to curb the spread of the virus. That strategy was abandoned earlier this month, after protests spread like wildfire across the country against stringent restrictions that have upended businesses and daily life.

However, the abrupt rollback of Covid restrictions by the government has left hospitals unprepared to deal with the influx of patients. Pharmacies are running out of medicines as a panicked population stocks up en masse. Beijing has emerged as the main infection hot spot, and Shanghai is quickly catching up. Worryingly, the infection is rippling out from metros to rural areas.

As the virus sweeps through the country, there is growing concern about possible deaths, virus mutations and the impact on the economy and trade.