Climate Change Is A Losing Battle. Stakes Getting Higher Every Day

On the midnight of December 12, 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at its 21st session held. at Paris, the capital of France, after a prolonged discussion and debate, adopted the Paris Agreement.

Delegates to the conference cheered and appeared happy and many of them hugged each other and even cried of happiness thinking that the solution of the most serious global problem had been found and the future of this planet is safe. Their tears dried and soon the world returned to business as usual.

However, seven years down the lane there has been some progress in reducing the annual scale of emissions of green house gases (GHGs) by adopting clean energy in terms of solar and wind, increasing production of electric vehicles, announcement of cut off year by many countries to be carbon neutral.

However, the efforts have not been adequate to respond to the crisis. At the same time the emissions continue to increase concentration of the GHGs in the atmosphere thereby exacerbating adverse climate change impacts and devastating climate events in many regions in form extreme events of heat waves, floods, storms, erratic rain fall patterns, droughts, melting of glaciers and polar ice etc.

The latest report (2022) of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that a small window for tackling climate change risks by limiting average global atmospheric temperature to 1.5 degree C and thereby avoiding a major catastrophe is closing fast if the international community did not take action.

This warning, however, got drowned in the Russia-Ukrainian war started with Russian invasion of Ukraine on February24, 2022. This armed conflict was looming large as the hectic diplomatic efforts and warnings proved futile. With this war the contemporary historians are saying that a new world order is emerging and that cold war 2.0 has started.

The serious economic shock this war has inflicted is unprecedented. The sanctions imposed on Russia have affected supply chain particularly that of energy. Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and natural gas for years has complicated the matter. Oil and gas prices have gone up substantially all over the world. The war continues and its cost on economy and human life and misery to millions of people particularly Ukrainians is enormous.

The global climate change reversal action is apparently on back burner though international conferences and deliberations continue as rituals. The world’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels will not allow significant reduction of emissions in any foreseeable future. Energy, industrial, transport and land use sector are major contributors of GHG emission.

Although there are declarations about commitment of reduction of emissions, their peaking by 2030 or 2040 or 2050 by a number of countries, the emissions are likely to increase even though rates may be slightly less than the previous decade. The recently uses ‘zero net carbon neutrality’ is an obscure statement which is not too relevant as these are political statements and not legally binding.

The irony is that all countries who are signatories of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement express their commitment to reducing or limiting emissions and about action adaptations through submission of their nationally determined contributions (NDC) or ambitions or targets, it is not known how honestly and sincerely these commitments are being implemented. When proper monitoring, reporting and verification by a third party is done, the international community will know who has done what.

However, as a new world order is setting in with international rivalries among big powers, regional conflicts and economic uncertainties, the international cooperation in combating climate change has become fragile.

The world has remained divided into biggest emitters and those who have been at a development stage that energy deficit did not allow them to grab a share of atmosphere to pump emissions. Also there are emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa that have been increasing their share of emissions. Also expectations of the less developed countries to get financial and technological support from developed countries have not been met. The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) though agreed, does not provide much relief to less developed and small island states.

These countries also demand compensation in terms of finance for loss and damage from historically largest polluters. In the ultimate analysis all countries will have to fend for themselves to support adaptation including the small island states that are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise and may partly of fully get submerged.

Just like imminent drowning of a ship due to cyclone or accident, all knows the climate catastrophe and no one can prevent it besides making big hue and cry. Annual meeting of COP is one forum to make such hue and cry.