Victim and hero: Donald Trump’s shooting seals his political edge for 2024
The image of Donald Trump raising his fist in the air, giving a determined look to the crowd.
And calling on them to “fight, fight, fight”, with blood dripping from his ear to his face, will define the 2024 American presidential elections.
The image allows Trump to position himself as both the hero and the victim, and is already charging up his base. It allows his supporters to neutralise the Democratic narrative that has painted Trump as the source, rather than the target, of political violence so far. It can possibly earn him sympathy and respect among swing voters in critical swing states. It is likely to give him a major bounce in polls in a critical week when the Republican National Convention is set to formally nominate him as the party’s presidential candidate. And it opens up the room for Trump’s campaign to portray him as a brave fighter for the nation, and contrast this with his inward-looking Democratic rivals who appear stuck with an ailing candidate and low morale among supporters.
Four months before an election, it is imprudent to speculate about outcomes. And a lot can still change. But there is little doubt that at the moment, after Saturday’s shooting, Trump, who has been leading in the polls, now has the clear political momentum to return to the White House for a rare, non-consecutive second term.
Examine how the shooting is playing out in American politics.
First, for Trump’s base, which identifies itself as the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, Trump has always been the champion who has fought for ordinary Americans against an all-powerful American establishment that encompasses the existing leadership of both parties, the “deep state”, and the liberal elites across the media and cultural spaces. This base has internalised Trump’s narrative that he is fighting to secure America’s borders and protect American jobs at home and secure American interests abroad against a globalist consensus. And this base believes that the amorphous establishment has taken every possible step to block Trump. In this view, all the allegations Trump has faced, from Russia’s possible role in the 2016 election to the subverting the 2020 elections to his recent conviction in a business fraud case, are examples of this politics of vendetta against Trump. Indeed, the criminal charges and conviction have only helped Trump consolidate his political standing and even raise more money for his campaign.
And so, for Trump’s supporters, the shooting confirms what they have always believed. The former president is a selfless nationalist who has given up a life of luxury and comfort to fight for poor Americans. The former president is brave who has taken on Washington. The former president is willing to sacrifice his interests, and now even his life. And the former president’s opponents will do anything, even take his life, to block the return of the MAGA movement to the White House. The fact that Trump took a bullet, yet instinctively stood up back, with a message to stay on in the battle, will go down as the biggest morale-booster of this election cycle for the Republican base.
Two, the shooting fundamentally reverses the narratives that have dominated the current phase in American politics, allows Republicans to wash away the stain of January 6 mob attack on the US Capitol and take the moral high ground, and gives the MAGA movement a way to appeal to swing voters.
Till now, Democrats have claimed that the rise in political violence is due to the rise of the MAGA movement and Trump’s active encouragement, or at least ambivalence, about violence. The fact that Trump didn’t accept the 2020 elections, resisted the peaceful transfer of power, and encouraged a mob to march to the US Congress that then engaged in violence and vandalism allowed Democrats as well as liberal civil society to project Trump as the instigator of violence and a threat to democracy. The fact that the line between racist mobs, and the MAGA support base, is often blurred has also given ground to Democrats to cast Trump as representing White majoritarian extremism in society.
But after Saturday, Trump can, rightfully, also claim to be the target of political violence. The attack allows Republicans to shift the focus from January 6, 2021 to July 13, 2024. It will lead to Trump and his supporters blaming Democrats for creating a climate that led to the shooting in the first place, even though Democrats of all stripes have forcefully condemned the shooting. As JD Vance, among the top contenders for Trump’s vice presidential pick, said on X, “The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.” Expect this line of attack to intensify, irrespective of its factual validity. And expect this line of attack to persuade at least some swing voters, including moderate Republicans, in a closely fought election, to develop some sympathy and respect for Trump in battleground states.
And finally, the timing of the attack helps Trump too. His arch rival, President Joe Biden, after a disastrous debate performance, is facing an unprecedented backlash from his own party with the rank and file wanting him to drop out of the race. As Democrats struggle with internal discord, a fragmented base and low morale, the party’s credibility has taken a major hit among both donors and voters.
Contrast this disarray in Democratic camp with Trump who will walk into the Republican convention, which commences on Monday in Milwaukee, as a hero. He will be projected as a leader who has taken a bullet for the nation. The convention will further unify the Republicans. Trump will dominate the airwaves and public consciousness even as Democrats, out of respect for him and their condemnation of the shooting, have had to pause their campaign. And all of it may give him a bounce in polls that may be hard for his rival to offset in the coming months.
With his base charged, his past stain eroded, his appeal among fence-sitters enhanced, and his own image assuming an even larger than life dimension, Donald Trump is set to convert what was clearly a moment of shock, a moment that could have taken his life away, a moment that will be etched in his consciousness and in any examination of his politics forever, into a historic opportunity for the biggest political comeback in American politics.