BJP to retain Gujarat, Himachal; Cong beaten again, AAP flops: Exit polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party will retain Gujarat for a seventh consecutive term and will win an unprecedented second term in Himachal Pradesh, according to exit poll data released Monday evening.

The Congress must settle for a distant second in both elections and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party – expected to pose a serious challenge to the ruling BJP in the two states – has flopped.

Exit poll data for the Delhi civic election has also been released and there is better news for the AAP; Kejriwal’s outfit is expected to win comfortably. The BJP – which won in 2017 – is second and the Congress is almost eliminated.

Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.

The Gujarat Assembly has 182 seats and the majority mark is set at 92. In Himachal, the Assembly strength is 68 and the majority mark is 35. There are 250 seats in play in Delhi.

For Gujarat, the Republic-P Marq survey has given the BJP between 128 and 148 seats, the Congress between 30 and 42, and fewer than 10 seats to the AAP. The TV9 Bharatvarsh survey gives the BJP a similar score – 125 to 130 seats. The Congress does slightly better here – 40-50 seats – but the AAP does worse and is expected to get less than five seats.

In Himachal, the biggest margin of victory for the BJP is predicted by the Times Now Navbharat ETG exit poll, which gives the saffron party between 34 and 42 seats.

The hill state, though, is expected to see a closer battle than Gujarat.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll gives the Congress a slight edge with 30-40 seats to the BJP’s 24-34. Republic-P Marq favours the BJP – 34 to 39 seats compared to 20-33 for the Congress. Times Now Navbharat leans heavily towards the BJP – 34 to 42 seats – and gives the Congress 24 to 32 seats.

What is common to all these, however, is that the AAP must expect a rout; India Today and Times Now give the party 0 seats, while Republic predicts a solitary win.