Earth surpasses 1.5°C Global Warming threshold: Studies suggest climate may have entered dangerous new phase

Earth has likely surpassed the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold, according to two major studies. This alarming development suggests that the planet has entered a new and potentially dangerous phase of climate change.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, in 2024, Earth’s temperatures exceeded that threshold. While the Paris Agreement assesses warming over decades rather than short-term fluctuations, the new research indicates that recent extreme heat could be an early signal of a long-term breach.

Both studies analyzed historical climate data to determine whether record-breaking hot years are harbingers of a sustained warming trend. The conclusion: Earth has likely entered a prolonged period above the 1.5°C threshold, which scientists warn could lead to catastrophic consequences for the planet’s ecosystems.

2024: The first of many years above 1.5°C

Climate organizations worldwide confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with average temperatures approximately 1.6°C above those in the late 19th century. Individual days and months also exceeded the 1.5°C mark.

Although annual temperatures fluctuate due to natural patterns like El Niño, which contributed to 2024’s spike, scientists argue that a single year above 1.5°C does not necessarily indicate a failure of the Paris Agreement. However, the newly published studies in Nature Climate Change suggest that even brief periods above this threshold could signal a long-term shift in global climate patterns.

Key findings from the studies

Conducted by researchers in Europe and Canada, both studies sought to determine whether a single year exceeding 1.5°C signals a long-term crossing of the Paris Agreement target. Using climate observations and model simulations, they arrived at the same unsettling conclusion.

The European study found that when global temperatures surpass a given threshold, the following 20-year period also tends to remain at or above that level. This implies that since 2024 exceeded 1.5°C, the next two decades may also remain above that mark.

The Canadian study examined month-to-month temperature data and noted that June 2024 marked the 12th consecutive month above the 1.5°C level. The researchers concluded that such a sustained period above a warming threshold indicates it is likely to persist over the long term.

Both studies also suggest that even with immediate and aggressive emissions cuts, Earth is still on course to remain above 1.5°C for the foreseeable future.

Humanity is still headed in the wrong direction

Despite decades of warnings, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 1990, global carbon dioxide emissions have increased by about 50%, showing that humanity is still far from meeting climate goals.

To halt global warming, emissions must reach net zero. However, even then, some climate changes will persist for centuries due to already locked-in warming, particularly in the oceans. If humanity hopes to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C, it will require achieving net-negative emissions—removing more greenhouse gases from the atmosphere than we emit. This would be an enormous challenge.

The consequences of a warmer world

The impacts of climate change are already visible and will worsen for future generations. Australia, for instance, has warmed by 1.5°C since 1910. Unique ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef are under severe stress, oceans are warming, and rising sea levels are threatening coastlines and marine life.

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, bushfires, and storms, are becoming more intense and frequent, straining societies and economies worldwide.

Signs of progress — But more action needed

Despite these grim warnings, some progress is being made. Renewable energy capacity is expanding, fossil fuel use is declining in several countries, and technological advancements are helping slow emissions growth in industries like aviation and construction. However, these efforts are still insufficient to meet the scale of the crisis.

Turning the tide against climate change

These studies serve as a stark reminder that humanity must act swiftly to combat climate change. Nations must prepare for further warming while drastically reducing emissions. Wealthier countries must also support poorer nations, which are disproportionately affected by climate impacts.

A fundamental shift toward decarbonizing economies and societies is necessary. Although hope remains, any further delay will only intensify the damage. The time for urgent action is now.