The Congress will hold a significant edge in Haryana and its alliance with the National Conference — both are members of the INDIA bloc — could emerge with a slim advantage in Jammu & Kashmir, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Saturday.
In Haryana, which voted on Saturday, almost every major exit poll predicted that the Congress could come back to power after a decade and gain a comfortable majority on its own, defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). If this trend holds true, it will mean that the party has carried the momentum of its Lok Sabha performance, when it staved off a BJP sweep of the state for the first time since 2014 and won five of the 10 Lok Sabha seats.
The exit polls were more mixed about Jammu & Kashmir, a Union territory that conducted its first assembly elections in a decade and also the first such exercise since tectonic changes in August 2019 saw the region lose its special status and statehood.
Almost every exit poll predicted that an alliance of the National Conference (NC) and the Congress could emerge ahead of others in the most fragmented elections in the restive region in a generation. Exit polls suggested that the BJP could do well in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, which has 43 seats in the 90-member assembly after a contentious delimitation exercise in 2022. The NC-Congress alliance was projected to emerge as the winner in the Muslim-majority Kashmir, which houses 47 seats.
The assembly polls in the two northern regions are the first elections since this summer’s Lok Sabha results and will have an impact on national politics, as well as set the stage for another set of significant state contests in Maharashtra and Jharkhand later this year.
The votes will be counted on October 8.
To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. The two assembly elections are also a litmus test for pollsters and their methodology since an overwhelming majority of them got the predictions for the Lok Sabha polls wrong.
“I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass,” former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah said on X.
Overall, the exit polls predicted that results in the two regions might buoy the Opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) and could be largely on the lines of the Lok Sabha results from four months ago. Data shared by pollsters also suggested that the elections were fought on largely local factors with no overarching national factor.
“The BJP had no achievements on their side and did nothing good for the state. The mandate is very clear and very decisive for the Congress,” said Congress MP Deepinder Hooda.
The BJP dismissed the predictions. “The BJP will surely win in Haryana and form the government again,” said BJP leader Anil Vij.
In Haryana, exit polls predicted that the Congress is likely to comfortably win a simple majority in largely bipolar elections, trouncing the BJP which failed to win a majority five years ago but cobbled together a majority with the Jannayak Janata Party.
The top end of the tally was given by Axis MyIndia, which predicted that the Congress could touch its highest ever vote share and win 53-65 seats, winning votes across communities and age groups. The bottom end was predicted by Dainik Bhaskar, which said the Congress could win between 44 and 54 seats.
Exit polls indicated that smaller alliances – such as the Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party and the Jannayak Janata Party-Azad Samaj Party – could be wiped out. The BJP was seen as holding on to its core vote but losing out to the Congress that appeared to be gaining across caste fault lines.
The elections were fought on a cocktail of issues ranging from anti-incumbency against the BJP government and discontent around the government’s short-service armed services recruitment scheme Agnipath, to protests by India’s top wrestlers against sexual harassment and farmers’ discontent.
The Congress won 31 seats of the 90 in Haryana in 2019. The BJP bagged 40, falling short of the majority mark of 46. It formed the government with the help of JJP but the alliance collapsed earlier this year when the BJP replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister.
In Jammu & Kashmir, exit polls threw up a more murky picture. Pollsters predicted that the BJP was likely to emerge as the biggest party in Jammu, leaving behind the NC-Congress alliance and smaller parties. But a completely different picture was tipped to emerge in Kashmir, where the NC-Congress alliance was seen as being miles ahead of other parties and independents. Overall, the exit polls suggested that the NC-Congress alliance could come very close to the majority mark of 46 and some even predicted that it could secure the magic figure on its own.
The top end of predications was by Republic-PMarq which hinted that the NC-Congress combine could sweep Kashmir and pick up a chunk of seats in Jammu to win 55-62 seats in the 90-member assembly, securing a majority on its own. The bottom end of the band was predicted by Gulistan News, which said the alliance could win 31-36 seats.
This was the most fragmented contest in J&K in a generation. Other than the BJP and NC-Congress combine, the Peoples Democratic Party of former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, former minister Sajjad Gani Lone-led People’s Conference, the Apni Party, Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party, Jamaat-e-Islami-backed independent candidates, and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party were also in the fray.
But the exit polls suggested that the contest was largely limited between the BJP and the NC-Congress combine. Some exit polls hinted that the PDP or some independents could hold the key to government formation if the NC-Congress alliance stopped just short of the majority mark of 46.
In 2014, the Peoples Democratic Party emerged as the largest party with 28 seats and formed an alliance of ideological extremes with the BJP, which had 25 seats. But the coalition collapsed early in 2018 after the BJP withdrew support and Governor’s Rule was imposed in June that year in controversial circumstances. On August 5, 2019, the Union government revoked Article 370 of the Constitution and bifurcated the erstwhile region.
These elections are critical because they were considered to be the last step before the restoration of statehood. The campaign trail was dominated by emotive issues such as Article 370 and the region’s autonomy and everyday questions of governance and anti-incumbency.