Election Results 2022: BJP keeps ‘asmita’ intact in Gujarat, Congress gets Himachal in hand

The Bharatiya Janata Party beat expectations and records while the Indian National Congress ensured a recent historic trend as counting drew to a close on yet another election counting day.

Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh were the two states that went to the polls in this round of assembly elections, the results of which were declared Thursday, December 8.

In Gujarat, the BJP dominated beyond the expectations of all pollsters. The party, which has controlled the state for 27 years now, was on course to win more than 155 of the assembly’s 182 seats. The party had won or was leading on 156 seats, as of last updating this report. The Congress was a distant second at 17 while new entrant Aam Aadmi Party was in single digits at 5.

With its Gujarat performance, the BJP not only bested its own record, but also the Congress’s. It won more seats than its own highest state tally of 127 (in 2002, when Narendra Modi returned as chief minister) as well as the most ever won by a party in Gujarat (beating the Congress’s 149 in 1985).

Up north, Himachal Pradesh saw the Congress returning to power, repeating the hill state’s recent history (since 1990) of switching between the BJP and the Congress every election. The Congress emerged on top after a nail-biting initial few hours of counting during which it was in a neck-and-neck race with the BJP. As of last updating this report, the Congress had won or was leading on 40 of the state’s 68 seats, and the BJP on 25.

ELECTION RESULTS 2022: KEY TAKEAWAYS
The BJP has once again proved that it is by far the strongest political force in the country right now and that it will go down in history as one of India’s most dominant political parties. If the party completes the upcoming five-year term in Gujarat, which it is likely to, it will equal the Left’s record of ruling a state for seven straight terms (the Left did so in West Bengal). And, as most state elections in recent years have, the Gujarat win once again solidifies the image and popularity of PM Narendra Modi, on whose face the BJP fought the polls, among the voters.

The Congress has something to cheer (and the BJP something to worry) in Himachal Pradesh. With the victory, the Congress has compensated for the loss of Punjab earlier this year; the party, once again, is in power in three states – Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh being the other two – not including a couple where it is part of coalition governments.

However, the abysmal performance in Gujarat where the party has lost more than 60 assembly seats, will leave the Congress smarting. Gujarat sends a substantial 26 MPs to the Lok Sabha and such a performance in the run-up to the 2024 national elections may not bode well for the Congress.

The Aam Aadmi Party failed to open its account in Himachal Pradesh. In Gujarat, it won a handful of seats and a sizeable vote share (over 10%). This, a day after it swept the municipal polls in Delhi displacing the BJP, which was in control of the local body for 15 straight years.

What does one make of this performance? That’s a question best left for psephologists to answer. However, this electoral performance will go quite some way in helping AAP in its attempts to go national and fill the vacuum created by the Congress’s decline. Remember, just this year, the AAP wrested Punjab from the Congress.

ELECTIONS 2022 DONE, WHAT NEXT?

Well, a lot more elections. 2023 will see nearly 10 state elections. These will likely include a chunk of the Northeast (a region dominated by the BJP) as well as two states where the Congress is in power (Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan). Elections will likely also be held in Karnataka and Telangana.

Once these are done with, we will move to the big one: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 where PM Narendra Modi will look to beat a 10-year anti-incumbency. And, with yet another election cycle gone by, the question remains: Who will be the one challenging him?