As COP29 convenes in Baku, global attention turns once again to the question of climate commitments and progress made since the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement.
The upcoming conference will pose a pressing question: Has the world truly advanced in meeting the emissions targets that science says are essential to avoid catastrophic climate change? A close examination of the current Nationally Determined Contributions shows both progress and an urgent need for more ambitious action.
Enhancing accountability and transparency
For many nations, the Paris Agreement remains a guiding framework, but as the UN’s first global stocktake at COP28 demonstrated, current commitments and transparency mechanisms are insufficient for real progress. COP29 aims to improve accountability measures to ensure that pledged funds are disbursed effectively and on schedule.
Transparency mechanisms such as regular reporting on climate finance allocations and emissions reduction progress are being considered to enhance trust and accountability in international climate cooperation. Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, highlighted the importance of tracking mechanisms to ensure that “climate cash counts,” emphasizing that financial support must translate into tangible, measurable results.
Stagnation in reducing global emissions
Since the Paris Agreement’s adoption, NDCs have become the primary framework for countries to articulate their climate ambitions, but recent data shows that the majority fall short of meeting the global temperature goal. According to the latest report from the UN Climate Change Secretariat, global greenhouse gas emissions remain perilously close to 2019 levels, with minimal reduction progress.
Even with full implementation of all current NDCs, emissions are projected to peak before 2030 but fall short of the reductions needed to keep global warming below the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This gap illustrates an alarming trend — while commitments have increased in number and specificity, their collective impact remains insufficient to prevent severe climate impacts.
In particular, countries with historically high emissions — including the US, China, and India — have struggled to translate ambitious pledges into sustained reductions. On the other hand, nations such as those in the EU, New Zealand, and several Pacific Island states have either reduced emissions substantially or put policies in place that could serve as models for more comprehensive global action.
Germany is another example of a country which has pioneered renewable energy legislation to achieve a record 46 percent share of renewable power in its electricity mix in recent years. Meanwhile, Denmark and Sweden have established national frameworks targeting net-zero emissions by the middle of the century. Yet, many of the world’s largest emitters remain behind their targets, underscoring a divide between ambition and action that is critical for COP29 to address.
Climate-vulnerable regions, including sub-Saharan Africa and island nations, have also made considerable strides in setting strong climate policies despite contributing relatively little to global emissions. However, these nations often face implementation barriers that more affluent countries do not, primarily due to resource limitations.
Financial commitments fall short of needs
Climate finance has emerged as a critical factor in closing the emissions gap, especially for developing countries facing disproportionate impacts from climate change. Climate-related damages have skyrocketed in recent years, with extreme weather events causing billions in economic losses worldwide.
Stiell underscored this point by stressing the need for exponential growth in climate finance to ensure equitable transitions across economies. “We simply can’t afford a world of clean energy haves and have-nots,” he said, warning that without substantive financing commitments only the wealthiest nations would be able to protect themselves against the intensifying climate crisis.
Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan’s lead negotiator, reinforced this: “We can see the divides that need to be bridged, but we must have a climate finance target that accounts for the needs of the most vulnerable.” While the latest OECD data indicates developed countries mobilized $100 billion for climate action in 2022, this figure falls drastically short of the trillions of dollars needed annually.
However, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund face mounting calls to further expand these initiatives and reduce financing barriers for developing nations. As COP29 unfolds, global leaders face the challenging task of ensuring that the commitments made are not just promises but foundational steps toward meaningful, global climate action. The stakes have never been higher.