Over 85% Of Indian Districts Exposed To Extreme Climate Events: Study

More than 85 per cent of districts in India are exposed to extreme climate events such as floods, droughts and cyclones, according to a new study.

The study by IPE Global and Esri India also found that 45 per cent of the districts were experiencing a “swapping” trend, where traditionally flood-prone areas were becoming drought-prone and vice versa. Using a penta-decadal analysis, the study compiled a catalogue of extreme climate events during a 50-year period from 1973 to 2023, employing spatial and temporal modelling.

The last decade alone saw a five-fold increase in these climate extremes, with a four-fold increase in extreme flood events, it said. Districts in eastern India are more prone to extreme flood events, followed closely by the country’s northeastern and southern parts.

The study also shows there has been a two-fold increase in drought events, especially agricultural and meteorological droughts, and a four-fold increase in cyclone events. It found that more than 60 per cent of districts in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Assam were experiencing more than one extreme climate event.

Abinash Mohanty — head of climate change and sustainability practice at IPE Global and the study’s author — said, “The current trend of catastrophic climate extremes that makes nine out of 10 Indians exposed to extreme climate events is a result of a 0.6 degree Celsius temperature rise in the last century.”

“Recent Kerala landslides triggered by incessant and erratic rainfall episodes, floods in Gujarat, the disappearance of Om Parvat’s snow cover, and cities getting paralysed with sudden and abrupt downpours is a testament that climate is changed. Our analysis suggests that more than 1.47 billion Indians will be highly exposed to climate extremes by 2036,” he said.

The study revealed that more than 45 per cent of districts were experiencing a swapping trend, ie, some flood-prone districts were becoming more susceptible to droughts and vice versa. The number of districts that have transitioned from experiencing floods to facing droughts surpassed those that have shifted from droughts to floods. Districts in Tripura, Kerala, Bihar, Punjab and Jharkhand exhibit the most prominent swapping trends, it said.

The study recommended establishing a Climate Risk Observatory, a risk-informed decision-making toolkit for policymakers at the national, state, district and city levels under its National Resilience Programme, and the creation of an Infrastructure Climate Fund to support sustained investment in climate-resilient critical infrastructure and foster locally-led climate actions.

Ashwajit Singh, founder and managing director of IPE Global, said, “To meet climate goals, India must shift its budget focus from mitigation to adaptation. Current practices underfund climate resilience, risking long-term sustainability. India, in particular, experienced an 8 per cent GDP loss in 2022 and a cumulative capital wealth decrease of 7.5 per cent due to climate impacts.” Agendra Kumar — Esri India’s managing director — said the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, in conjunction with intense precipitation, was causing significant impacts on lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.

A holistic, data-driven approach is essential for informed policy decisions, climate adaptation and resilience, he said.