Retail inflation in February eases to 6.4%, still above RBI’s comfort zone

India’s retail inflation eased marginally in February, but remained above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort zone for the second straight month.

The consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation eased to 6.44 per cent in February, as per data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. This is lower compared to 6.52 per cent in January, but above the RBI’s upper tolerance level of 6 per cent.

It may be noted that the inflation in the food basket in February 2023 was at 5.95 per cent, up from 5.94 per cent in January. This indicates that food prices continue to remain elevated.

Retail inflation went above the RBI’s upper threshold in January after falling to a 1-year low of 5.72 per cent in December.

This could influence the RBI Monetary Policy Committee’s upcoming review, where it is expected to raise key rates for the seventh consecutive time by at least 25 basis points.

While the RBI is likely to closely monitor the US Fed’s policy review later this month after the collapse of two US banks, analysts believe that even a pause by the US central bank would have little impact.

The RBI is more likely to focus on domestic factors that can drive inflation upwards, including core inflation and heat waves which could impact food production and prices.